I know for many people that is not precise enough and makes planning a challenge, but “it is what it is.”. RAINFA AMOUNT, SIX INCHES TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN. Canadian Model; European (ECMWF) NCEP Models & Forecasts; NCEP Ensemble Output Page; PSU Eyewall Page (NWS State College) RAP (Rapid-Refresh) SREF From SPC . The other revealing fact here is that forecast skill gradually improves at 4 days out, then again at 3 days out, and so on. In addition, the models disagree considerably on how much of a weakness might exist in the Bermuda high steering Laura at that time. It is apparent that skill has improved from the early 2000s to today. Dr. Shepherd is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and hosts The Weather Channel’s Weather Geeks Podcast, which can be found at all podcast outlets. From SUN 12:19 PM CDT until SUN 20:00 PM CDT. With Laura, there has been some uncertainty about whether the landfall point will be in Louisiana or Texas. Once the storm is named, you start to see track and intensity forecasts. Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 – 3:00 AM JST August 24 2020 Laura’s structure still impressive in upper levels…..shear still north of Marco…. The National Hurricane Center morning discussion notes, “Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through the next couple of days.” This is a recipe for rapid intensification, as it does not appear that Marco churned up to much cold water to impede Laura’s progress. From the looks of it this doesn’t include replies.. A model is a set of mathematical equations solved to predict possible weather outcomes. The forecast cone is inherently designed to capture uncertainty associated with model limitations, nature, and so forth. Special Weather Statement A decreasing line indicates lessening error (in nautical miles) in the position of the storm. If the forecast is not on that line, there is often a perception that it was wrong. Weather overview (Next hours and days, 14 day forecast) Meteograms (Graph 3-5 days - choose your model) Forecast XL (Graph and table up to 10 days - choose your model) This recovery may be slowed by the possibility that Laura will expand in size as it traverses Hispaniola and Cuba – something that happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it took a similar path. Marco was taking advantage of favorable conditions to quickly intensify. Probably minimal….GOM hasn’t been really tapped in a couple years (Michael), and even that was in the eastern GOM…..Laura will still be getting lots of energy from the GOM….. Hello everyone. Conditions were favorable for development of Ike during its traverse over the islands, but since its core was over land, the outer portions of the storm developed instead. 24 HRS: 28.9N 125.8E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East China Sea Meteorologists are very familiar with the graphic below. Will it skirt the La. coast? That led to a big expansion of the hurricane’s size, resulting in Ike’s taking a very long time to spin up once its core emerged over water. RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. Among the 12Z Saturday model runs, the HMON model had the farthest west track for Laura, calling for landfall near Brownsville, Texas, as a category 3 hurricane on Thursday morning. Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, a leading international expert in weather and climate, was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS) and is Director of the University of Georgia’s (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program. However, this misalignment was less than on Friday, which has allowed more organization. The problem is that many people don’t understand that not only will those forecasts likely change, we fully expect them because of the aforementioned discussion. 72 HRS: 37.3N 124.6E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Yellow Sea. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 30 – 31 degrees Celsius (86 – 88°F) over much of the Gulf of Mexico, the atmosphere will be moist, and it appears that wind shear will be less of a problem for Laura than earlier thought, with moderate wind shear of 10 – 20 knots a good bet. (See all EOTS posts here. Ocean temperatures along Bavi’s track are unusually warm – about 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), which is approximately two degrees Celsius (3.6°F) above average. The latest on where it is going, how strong it will be, and the forecast process too. For someone paying close attention to the storm, the hyper-awareness or “need to know” urgency may reveal aspects of hurricane prediction or messaging quite familiar to meteorologists but confusing to the public. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. Most recent vis-frame……whole lotta tilting going on at the moment. With dewpoints well into the 60s today, sunny skies, and very light winds, today may feel like the most oppressive heat day of the week. Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, a leading international expert in weather and climate, was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS) and is Director of the. The 0Z Saturday operational runs of the GFS, European, and UKMET models did not show development of this wave during the coming five days. As someone who lives in the South, I see a similar phenomenon with snow forecasts. PLUS THE RISK OF TORNADO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDSAY. Laura is a larger storm than Marco, which fizzled near the eastern Louisiana coast, so wind, rain, storm surge, and tornado threats will be featured over a broad area. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) year-to-date in the basin was just 14% of average. In 2004, he was honored at the White House with a prestigious PECASE award. Europe Swiss HD 4x4 (3 days) ECMWFbase Swiss HD 4x4 (2 days) ICON-EU (5 days) ICON-EU Flash (1 day) EURO-4 (2 days) HIRLAM-FMI (2 days) RUSSIA (3 days) Forecast . LANDFALL AROUND ONE :00 A.M. THURSDAY, CATEGORY 3, THEY ARE SEEING SIGNS OF WINDS INCREASING. Laura became a hurricane Tuesday shortly after entering the warm and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, gathering strength on a path to hit the U.S. coastline.

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